By Kate Yuan

(JW Insights) Oct 17 -- China’s Huawei has now taken the top spot in the China's mobile phone market from Apple, US-based investment banking company Jefferies wrote in a note on October 16.

Counterpoint estimates the Chinese company could sell 5 to 6 million units of the Mate 60 Pro alone this year. Analysts estimate that could rise to double-digits in 2024.

Jefferies analysts led by Edison Lee reckoned sales of the iPhone 15 were down by an even sharper double-digit percentage from its predecessor after Huawei outsold Apple overall, powered by the surprising debut of the Mate 60 Pro.

Sales of Apple’s flagship device are down 4.5% compared with the iPhone 14 over their first 17 days after release, Counterpoint Research estimated in previously unreported figures provided to Bloomberg News.

“The trend suggests iPhone would lose to Huawei in 2024,” Lee and colleagues wrote. “We believe weak demand in China would eventually lead to lower-than-expected global shipments of iPhone.”

The twin reports mark a potential blow to Apple at a time it’s grappling with the weakest smartphone demand in a decade and a backlash from overheating models.

If the initial estimates are accurate, they represent one of the iPhone’s worst debuts in China since around 2018, when local names like Oppo and Vivo began to captivate Asian consumers.

Counterpoint blamed the iPhone’s slump in China mainly on an economy struggling to rebound from its Covid trough. And it stressed that in the US, the iPhone 15 likely posted a double-digit rise over 2022 in the first nine days of sales.

Analysts remain divided about the longer-term impact in China, the world’s largest smartphone arena. Many analysts argue Huawei’s rising prominence could erode Apple’s dominance of the higher end of the market, said the Bloomberg report.