By Li Panpan

Consumer spending in India's Diwali (the festival of lights) is expected to approach levels not seen since before the pandemic. Chinese smartphones are poised to be big winners in the seasonal shopping, JW Insights learned from a Nikkei Asia report published on October 15.

Diwali is the focal point of one of the country's biggest shopping seasons, lasting from September to October, with other holidays included.

Spending will likely surpass $32 billion, according to Indian polling firm LocalCircles. That would exceed what consumers spent during the same periods in 2020 and 2021 and approach $37 billion in the pre-COVID year of 2019.

Indians are heading back to shopping malls, and car dealerships as new COVID-19 infections hover at a few thousand per day, down from a peak of more than 400,000 in 2021. Much of the country was confined to their homes during the lockdowns of 2020.

India's resurgent appetite for shopping is partially reflected in the consumer confidence index published by the Reserve Bank of India, the central bank. The current situation index hovers around 80, returning to the same level as before the 2020 lockdowns.

Market research firm Counterpoint forecasts that 5G phones will account for a third of all smartphone sales in India during this holiday shopping season. Because the demand for 5G devices will raise the average purchase price, sales of all smartphones will reach a new record of $7.7 billion during the holiday season, it said.

Chinese brands dominate India's smartphone market. In the second quarter, Xiaomi had a 19% share, tying South Korea's Samsung for the lead, according to Counterpoint. When rivals Vivo, Oppo, and Realme are included, Chinese companies hold more than 60% of the market.

Media reports in August said the Indian government was considering restricting sales of some Chinese smartphones, but much remains uncertain. Given the large market share of Chinese phones, such a measure would be highly disruptive.

Meanwhile, Apple announced late last month that it would make the iPhone 14 in India, a move that could put pressure on Chinese brands.