By Greg Gao

The global semiconductor industry is expected to decline and face destocking pressure in the first half of next year, and probably will pick up momentum from the second half, media outlets in Taiwan region predicted recently after observing the markets of wafer foundry, memory, test equipment, IC design, packaging and testing.

The performance of the semiconductor market in 2023 has attracted much attention after the adjustment period in 2022. Rumors have been circulating that the leading foundry TSMC will be affected by its major customers’ canceling orders, including MediaTek and AMD, in the first quarter of next year. The capacity utilization rate may drop significantly, and the revenue in the first quarter of 2023 will decrease by 15%.

TrendForce, a market research firm, pointed out recently that in the context of high inflation, the demand for consumer electronics products is subdued. In addition, device manufacturers still need time to digest the high inventory. 

From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of next year, it will be extremely challenging for the IC design industry, and there may be a quarterly decrease in revenue. As for the packaging and testing industry, based on overall industry opinions, the inventory adjustment and correction of the packaging and testing sector may continue until the second quarter of 2023. The industry may usher in growth in the third quarter of this year, according to TrendForce.

There are also forecasts saying that the inventory adjustment of the semiconductor industry will take longer than market expectations, and it is not ruled out that the destocking trends may be extended to the second half of 2023.